Northern Oil and Gas

NOG · NYSE

$27.54−$0.21 (−0.76%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $27.75

NOG analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 38% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold4
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $30.09 (+9.3% upside)

Low: $25.25
Now: $27.54
High: $35.70

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NOG analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Scotiabank	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Sector Perform	$27.00	59%
Citigroup	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$28.00 → $32.00	56%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$25.00 → $26.00	66%
Mizuho	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$29.00 → $30.00	51%
Raymond James	Sep 10, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$28.00 → $31.00	62%
Citigroup	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$36.00 → $28.00	56%
Mizuho	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$31.00 → $29.00	51%
Morgan Stanley	Jun 29, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$29.00 → $25.00	66%
Raymond James	Jun 15, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$35.00 → $30.00	62%
Morgan Stanley	May 22, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$28.00 → $29.00	66%

The case for and against

Updated Jan 19, 2026

Bull case

Northern Oil & Gas Inc is strategically pivoting its capital expenditure plans, now projecting a spend of $250-300 million to support growth through FY26, which reflects a proactive approach to capital management amidst fluctuating crude oil prices. The company anticipates a robust reinvestment rate of 79% for FY26, significantly higher than peer medians, indicating a strong commitment to growth and development. Additionally, with a projected leverage of 1.6x at annualized 4Q26 EBITDA, Northern Oil & Gas demonstrates financial stability and resilience compared to its peers, which have a leverage ratio below 0.9x.

Bear case

Northern Oil & Gas Inc. is facing a negative outlook due to a significant reduction in expected oil production, now projected at 73.9 mbbls/d for FY26 compared to previous estimates and a notable drop from earlier expectations of approximately 84 mbbls/d. This decline in production is compounded by the company's anticipated sequential decrease in production levels in the second half of FY25, which raises concerns about future performance. Additionally, despite projected strip EV/FCF yields of 11.9% in FY25 and 9.2% in FY26, these figures remain below the SMID peer group averages of 13.3% and 15.9%, indicating weaker relative financial performance.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.