Norfolk Southern

NSC · NYSE

$325.57+$2.09 (+0.65%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $323.48

NSC analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 14 analysts over the last 12 months. 43% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 20 analysts

Average $372.11 (+14.3% upside)

Low: $299.97
Now: $325.57
High: $434.70

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NSC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$376.00 → $347.00	66%
JP Morgan	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$338.00 → $318.00	56%
Susquehanna	Oct 2, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$386.00 → $350.00	52%
BMO Capital	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$310.00 → $355.00	71%
Baird	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$360.00 → $377.00	56%
Citigroup	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$351.00 → $376.00	66%
JP Morgan	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$316.00 → $338.00	56%
TD Cowen	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$337.00 → $376.00	21%
Wells Fargo	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$365.00 → $385.00	57%
RBC Capital	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$320.00 → $360.00	61%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Norfolk Southern is supported by a strong fundamental setup, with 2Q adj. EPS of $3.52 beating expectations, revenue of $3.5B up 11% y/y, and an adjusted operating ratio of 65.5% that reflected better-than-expected margins. Its outlook is further strengthened by broad-based volume momentum across merchandise, intermodal, and coal, including 4% total carload growth, 6% merchandise RPU gains, 16% intermodal RPU improvement, and 4% coal RPU growth tied to tighter truck capacity and favorable seaborne pricing. Management’s improving service metrics, 20% y/y gains in on-time originations, and a constructive industrial development pipeline suggest continued earnings power, supporting higher EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027.

Bear case

Norfolk Southern is facing a fundamentally weak setup because its earnings remain exposed to volatile coal markets, fluctuating fuel costs, and weather-related disruptions that can pressure both volumes and operating efficiency. The company also has safety and execution concerns, with FRA train accidents per million train miles rising to 4.20 in 2022 from 3.99 in 2021, while broader risks such as weaker economic conditions and technological advances in trucking could further erode rail share. In addition, the thesis is vulnerable to deal-related uncertainty around the proposed Union Pacific transaction, including regulatory hurdles, antitrust objections, termination risk, and potential adverse changes in terms.

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