Natera

NTRA · NASDAQ

$405.92+$6.50 (+1.63%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $399.42

NTRA analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 24 analysts over the last 12 months. 88% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy21
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 25 analysts

Average $360.94 (−11.1% downside)

Low: $282.80
Now: $405.92
High: $483.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NTRA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Canaccord Genuity	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$375.00 → $500.00	55%
JP Morgan	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$360.00 → $460.00	71%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$355.00 → $435.00	48%
TD Cowen	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$340.00 → $480.00	61%
Barclays	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$340.00 → $475.00	54%
Citigroup	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$365.00 → $480.00	0%
Guggenheim	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$360.00 → $475.00	66%
RBC Capital	Sep 25, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$350.00 → $460.00	59%
UBS	Sep 9, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$290.00 → $435.00	59%
Rothschild & Co	Sep 8, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$385.00	67%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Natera is viewed positively because Signatera sits in a dominant position within a $15B+ MRD market, with >90% share, durable reimbursement advantages, and 60% volume growth in 2025 supporting a long runway for adoption. Management’s ability to expand ASP from $1,275 toward $1,450-$1,500, alongside COGS/test declines of more than $100 since 2022 and a path to 70%+ gross margins and 25%+ EBIT margins, strengthens the earnings model. Additional upside comes from pharma, where IMvigor-driven engagement has created interest in clinical trials, while data licensing could produce eight-to-nine-figure deals and help accelerate growth in 2027-2028 and beyond.

Bear case

Natera is facing a negative setup because its growth thesis is increasingly dependent on MRD expansion, reimbursement gains, and continued ASP uplift, yet management itself warned that ultra-sensitive Signatera adoption could outpace COGS reductions and pressure gross margins. The bull case assumes MRD ASPs rise from roughly $1,250 toward $2,000, but the path may not be linear, and if penetration stalls in established use cases like CRC adjuvant, the model’s revenue and margin assumptions weaken materially. Competition also remains a core risk, with potential share loss in NIPT and cancer recurrence monitoring, while the 2027 readouts for Signatera Genome only underscore that much of the upside is still unproven.

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