Northern Trust

NTRS · NASDAQ

$165.44+$0.98 (+0.60%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:49 PM ET

Prev close $164.46

NTRS analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 15 analysts over the last 12 months. 20% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold10
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 15 analysts

Average $190.28 (+15.0% upside)

Low: $174.73
Now: $165.44
High: $218.40

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NTRS analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 8, 2026	Initiates	Hold	$175.00	50%
BMO Capital	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$208.00 → $190.00	56%
Citigroup	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$182.00 → $186.00	40%
JP Morgan	Oct 2, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$185.50 → $185.00	46%
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$179.00 → $183.00	62%
JP Morgan	Aug 4, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$179.50 → $185.50	46%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$170.00 → $173.00	52%
RBC Capital	Jul 23, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Sector Perform	$178.00	67%
Barclays	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$176.00 → $189.00	52%
Wells Fargo	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$189.00 → $194.00	61%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Northern Trust is well positioned by the combination of scale, recurring fee generation, and improving balance-sheet economics, with assets under custody or administration at $18.7 trillion and assets under management at $1.8 trillion as of December 2025. Its 2Q26 results showed core EPS growth of about 40% year over year, core revenue up 13% on only 5% core expense growth, and more than 700 bps of operating leverage, while trust fees rose for an eighth consecutive quarter and net interest income increased 11% on a 1.81% margin. Profitability metrics also strengthened, as core ROE, ROTCE, and ROA reached 18.1%, 19.3%, and 1.35%, supported by favorable markets, net client inflows, disciplined cost control, and shareholder-friendly capital returns.

Bear case

Northern Trust is facing a negative outlook because its revenue base is highly exposed to market valuations, capital markets activity, and asset-sensitive fee streams, making earnings vulnerable if equity markets weaken or a deeper recession emerges. Although average earning assets rose 3.8% year-over-year to $151 billion, pre-tax margin compressed to 23.7% from 28.3% as equipment and software expense jumped 23% sequentially and wealth management fees fell 1.5%, signaling profitability pressure despite balance-sheet growth. Rising regulatory, capital, liquidity, and interest-rate risks add to the downside, while management itself expects slower revenue growth in 2027 and highlighted geopolitical and inflation-driven macro uncertainty as key threats.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.