Nova

NVMI · NASDAQ

$320.03+$0.93 (+0.29%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:41 PM ET

Prev close $319.10

NVMI analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 78% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $536.32 (+67.6% upside)

Low: $465.61
Now: $320.03
High: $630.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NVMI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 8, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	$550.00 → $415.00	71%
Citigroup	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$595.00 → $550.00	71%
Needham	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$640.00 → $570.00	58%
Evercore ISI Group	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$600.00 → $475.00	61%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$600.00 → $500.00	77%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 6, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$494.00 → $540.00	50%
Citigroup	May 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$520.00 → $595.00	71%
Jefferies	May 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$520.00 → $640.00	57%
Barclays	May 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$465.00 → $600.00	64%
Needham	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$500.00 → $640.00	58%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Nova is well positioned to benefit from durable AI-driven capital spending, as CPU, memory, and storage investments are extending customer capacity plans into CY27 and supporting stronger process-control demand. Its beat-and-raise execution is reinforced by broad-based strength in advanced logic/GAA, DRAM, advanced packaging, and services, with 1Q26 revenue of $235.3MM above the high end of guidance, non-GAAP gross margin at 59.4%, and 3Q26 revenue guided to $282.0MM (+11% QoQ) with 59% gross margin. Fundamentally, a differentiated lab-to-fab strategy, roughly 15% of revenue invested in R&D, and rising adoption in China and leading-edge foundry customers support a credible path to sustained outperformance.

Bear case

Nova is facing a negative setup because gross margin in the period came in at 58.1%, below the 59.0%/58.9% preview and consensus, showing that product and customer mix are still pressuring profitability. Although management expects around 59% non-GAAP gross margin in Q3 and for the full year, the guidance implies only modest improvement and leaves little room for upside if mix or pricing weaken. Revenue was guided to $250.0MM, up 6% QoQ, but the expected 59% gross margin is still down about 40bps QoQ and only at the high end of the 57-60% long-term target range, suggesting earnings leverage remains constrained.

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