NexPoint Residential Trust

NXRT · NYSE

$18.50+$0.56 (+3.12%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $17.94

NXRT analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold2
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 6 analysts

Average $27.03 (+46.1% upside)

Low: $18.18
Now: $18.50
High: $36.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NXRT analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Truist Securities	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$26.00 → $18.00	45%
Citizens	Aug 20, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	—	40%
Truist Securities	Jun 30, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$27.00 → $26.00	45%
Truist Securities	Mar 12, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$30.00 → $27.00	45%
Raymond James	Feb 27, 2026	Downgrade	Market Perform → Underperform	—	56%
Truist Securities	Jan 20, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$31.00 → $30.00	45%
Truist Securities	Nov 17, 2025	Maintains	Hold	$34.00 → $31.00	45%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

NexPoint Residential Tr is supported by a compelling valuation gap, with a calculated $45.84 per share NAV versus a $19.84 stock price and a 7.2% implied cap rate, which suggests significant embedded asset value despite market skepticism. Management also has multiple levers to bolster earnings and cash flow, including high-yield DST transactions, share repurchases, and potential M&A, while 2Q26 rehab activity showed operational discipline through 459 full and partial upgrades, 255 leased upgraded units, a $90 average monthly rent premium, and a 23% ROI on total cost. Although high leverage and interest-rate sensitivity create a roughly $0.42 per share drag from 2025 to 2026 and an additional $0.98 from 2026 to 2027, these headwinds appear manageable against improving SSNOI growth and accretive investment opportunities.

Bear case

NexPoint Residential Tr is facing a deteriorating fundamental backdrop as higher interest rates are pressuring earnings, with 2027 NFFO cut 24% and normalized FFO expected to fall 44.7% year over year, while most hedges expire in 2026. Its leverage is elevated at nearly 12x net debt/EBITDA with 86% of debt unhedged and floating-rate as of 9/1/26, amplifying refinancing and interest expense risk just as 2026 Core FFO guidance was reduced to $2.35-$2.54 per share. Weak same-store trends, including 2Q26 NOI down 2.9% year over year and 2026 same-store NOI guided at -2.5% to +0.5%, suggest cash flow may not cover the 10.7% dividend, which appears vulnerable to a cut.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.