Oklo

OKLO · NYSE

$27.48+$0.24 (+0.88%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $27.24

OKLO analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 21 analysts over the last 12 months. 67% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy14
Hold7
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 22 analysts

Average $77.39 (+181.6% upside)

Low: $14.14
Now: $27.48
High: $136.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

OKLO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Barclays	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$76.00 → $59.00	46%
Piper Sandler	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$55.00 → $49.00	38%
UBS	Sep 25, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$55.00 → $41.00	45%
Piper Sandler	Sep 9, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$55.00	38%
Truist Securities	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$55.00 → $51.00	23%
Citigroup	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$76.00 → $57.50	35%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$90.00	17%
Canaccord Genuity	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$125.00 → $100.00	34%
Barclays	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$82.00 → $76.00	46%
Truist Securities	Jul 14, 2026	Initiates	Hold	$55.00	23%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Oklo is favored because its vertically integrated developer model can capture economics across power, fuel recycling, isotopes, and electricity sales, rather than relying on a one-time reactor sale, which supports more durable and bankable cash flows. Its commercial traction is anchored by Meta’s binding prepayment agreement for up to 1.2 GW, a disclosed pipeline of about 18.1 GW, and a fuel-secured first deployment using 5 MT of DOE-awarded EBR-II material, while regulatory progress and contracted EPC execution reduce key development risk. Financially, the model implies first-of-a-kind 75 MW units at 6.5% unlevered IRRs rising to 13% for repeat units, with EBITDA margins potentially near 60% at scale and revenue expected to scale from under $5M during 2027 to over $21B in 2038.

Bear case

Oklo is viewed negatively because its first licensing effort already failed in January 2022, and the path forward still depends on novel DOE and NRC processes that could face further delays, technical hurdles, or rejection for its Aurora reactor and fuel recycling facility. The business also appears financially early-stage and loss-making, with 2Q26 revenue of only $1.2M against a $73.2M operating loss, while R&D rose to $39.5M and capex reached $94M, underscoring heavy cash burn before meaningful scale. Revenue assumptions remain conservative at about $27.4M in FY28 and $198M by FY30, while EBITDA is expected to stay negative through 2030, reflecting execution, financing, fuel supply, and customer adoption risks.

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