Bull case
Occidental Petroleum is supported by a credible, efficiency-driven earnings and cash flow reset that does not rely on higher commodity prices, with management targeting a $4Bn sustainable cash flow improvement by 2030 versus the FY25 baseline and about half of that expected by '27. Its balance sheet story is equally constructive, as the company is prioritizing $10Bn of debt paydown ahead of the '29 preferred equity redemption, while already benefiting from a lower decline rate, a targeted -12% well cost improvement by 2030, and 2025 production of 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day across a 4.6 billion barrel reserve base. Additional support comes from robust midstream and marketing income, expected 2026 pretax guidance of $1.0B to $1.2B, and strong upstream execution in the Permian, Rockies, and Gulf of Mexico that is improving capital efficiency and cash generation.