Paychex

PAYX · NASDAQ

$112.62+$1.87 (+1.69%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $110.75

PAYX analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 16 analysts over the last 12 months. 6% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold13
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 17 analysts

Average $116.31 (+3.3% upside)

Low: $96.96
Now: $112.62
High: $157.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

PAYX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Baird	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$125.00 → $110.00	65%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$112.00 → $96.00	49%
UBS	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$125.00 → $115.00	45%
BMO Capital	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$118.00 → $113.00	51%
Stifel	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$130.00 → $112.00	55%
RBC Capital	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$130.00	64%
JP Morgan	Sep 24, 2026	Upgrade	Underweight → Neutral	$105.00 → $115.00	55%
Wolfe Research	Sep 16, 2026	Upgrade	Underperform → Peer Perform	—	59%
TD Cowen	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$98.00 → $117.00	67%
Stifel	Sep 9, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$110.00 → $130.00	55%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Paychex is well positioned to compound fundamentals because it combines a large, underpenetrated small- and midsize-business base with expanding higher-value offerings, including PEO, insurance, retirement, and compliance services. The company’s latest quarter showed 1Q27 revenue growth of 5.9% to about $1.63 billion, operating margin of 42.0%, and adjusted EPS of $1.34, while PEO and Insurance grew about 12% on record retention and strong worksite employee growth. Its outlook is reinforced by rising ASO-to-PEO conversions, Paycor-related revenue synergies, AI-driven efficiency, and guidance for 5% to 6% total revenue growth with 7% to 8% PEO and Insurance growth and about 44% operating margins in FY27.

Bear case

Paychex is facing a negative fundamental setup because its core Management Solutions business, which still represents roughly 75% of revenue, grew only 4.3% versus the 5%-6% guide, while PEO and Insurance, though stronger at 7.3%, is shifting mix toward a lower-visibility, higher-opex model. Management’s FY27 outlook of only 5%-6% total revenue growth, about 44% adjusted operating margin, and 7%-9% adjusted EPS growth was not enough to offset a softer F2Q revenue outlook near 4% and margin pressure from ramping sales headcount and elevated marketing spend. Weakening small-business hiring conditions, uncertainty around pays-per-control and HR demand, and concerns about execution after the F1Q27 beat suggest the company may struggle to sustain the growth re-acceleration investors expected.

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