Performance Food Group

PFGC · NYSE

$97.88+$2.17 (+2.27%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $95.71

PFGC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 15 analysts

Average $127.20 (+30.0% upside)

Low: $74.52
Now: $97.88
High: $151.20

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

PFGC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$131.00 → $136.00	48%
TD Cowen	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$115.00 → $110.00	33%
TD Cowen	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$120.00 → $115.00	33%
UBS	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$132.00 → $130.00	64%
Citigroup	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$143.00 → $144.00	71%
TD Cowen	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$128.00 → $120.00	33%
Citigroup	Jul 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$135.00 → $143.00	71%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$120.00 → $131.00	48%
Wells Fargo	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$115.00 → $130.00	60%
TD Cowen	Jul 7, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$128.00	33%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Performance Food Group is attractive because its scale across foodservice, convenience, and specialty creates multiple self-help levers that can compound earnings even in a fragmented, consolidating market. The company’s F2027 sales guidance of $72.5 billion to $73.0 billion and management’s $73 billion to $75 billion F2028 sales target support a path toward roughly 6% revenue growth, aided by independent customer wins, proprietary brand penetration, procurement savings, Cheney synergies, and disciplined capital flexibility. With leverage at 3.1x as of F3Q26 and margin expansion still underappreciated, the business appears positioned for stronger adjusted EBITDA and EPS growth as mix shifts and operational efficiencies flow through.

Bear case

Performance Food Group is facing a more cautious earnings trajectory as F2027E adjusted EBITDA is cut to $2.142B from $2.194B and adjusted EPS to $5.62 from $5.80, with F2028 revenue and EBITDA also reduced to $74.612B and $2.391B. The negative outlook centers on margin realization risk, since transportation-intensive operations across foodservice, convenience, and specialty channels remain vulnerable to elevated diesel prices, food inflation, and incomplete surcharge recovery, especially in less formulaic independent restaurant relationships. While the business has scale across 250,000 products and 300,000 customer locations, weaker organic case growth, competitive pressure, and possible shortfalls in procurement or technology execution could limit leverage and keep profitability below expectations.

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