Phillips 66

PSX · NYSE

$291.03+$0.48 (+0.17%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $290.55

PSX analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 16 analysts over the last 12 months. 44% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 22 analysts

Average $253.67 (−12.8% downside)

Low: $159.58
Now: $291.03
High: $351.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

PSX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wells Fargo	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$335.00 → $345.00	78%
Citigroup	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$217.00 → $297.00	35%
Barclays	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$216.00 → $282.00	71%
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$220.00 → $250.00	61%
Mizuho	Oct 8, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Neutral	$220.00 → $300.00	60%
Goldman Sachs	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$245.00 → $274.00	62%
TD Cowen	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$255.00 → $295.00	70%
BMO Capital	Sep 17, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$260.00 → $310.00	51%
Raymond James	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$240.00 → $300.00	72%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$196.00 → $284.00	73%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Phillips 66 is attractive because its integrated refining, midstream, and chemicals portfolio is producing visible operating leverage, with refining reliability up to about 95% in 2024-25, controllable costs down to below $6/bbl in 2025, and clean product yield running near 87%, while average adjusted EBITDA/bbl of roughly $7.90 over 2021-25 remains competitive versus peers. The WRB acquisition has improved optimization across Wood River, Borger, and Ponca, generated $50MM of synergies with another $75MM in sight, and supported 150kbd of crude throughput growth from 2025 to 2026 even after the LA refinery shutdown. With Midstream targeting about $4.5B of run-rate EBITDA by YE27, CPChem rebounding in 2026, and management committed to returning more than 50% of CFO through dividends and buybacks while working toward the $17B gross debt target by YE27, the fundamentals support a constructive outlook.

Bear case

Phillips 66 is exposed to a highly cyclical refining market where most earnings depend on spot margins, making results vulnerable to rapid swings in crude-to-product spreads and unforeseen regulatory costs. Despite strong operational improvement, the stock has underperformed the refining group on a 12- and 24-month basis because balance sheet leverage has constrained capital returns, leaving investors focused more on financial flexibility than operating gains. Downside risks remain tied to substantially weaker refining margins, chemicals margins below mid-cycle, and affiliate distributions lagging affiliate free cash flow growth, which could pressure overall earnings quality and valuation.

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