Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical

RARE · NASDAQ

$16.02+$0.95 (+6.30%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:46 PM ET

Prev close $15.07

RARE analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 23 analysts over the last 12 months. 65% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy15
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 21 analysts

Average $26.69 (+66.6% upside)

Low: $16.16
Now: $16.02
High: $40.95

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

RARE analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
UBS	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$16.00	69%
Evercore ISI Group	Sep 21, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$16.00 → $18.00	52%
Barclays	Sep 21, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$32.00 → $35.00	45%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 18, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$18.00 → $20.00	36%
Citigroup	Sep 18, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$31.00 → $32.00	42%
Canaccord Genuity	Sep 18, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$37.00 → $39.00	41%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Sep 18, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$33.00 → $39.00	41%
Citigroup	Sep 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$28.00 → $31.00	42%
Goldman Sachs	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$28.00 → $19.00	47%
Barclays	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$43.00 → $32.00	45%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is supported by a stronger fundamental outlook as the company’s probability of success estimate was raised to 100% from 90%, alongside higher pricing assumptions and an assumed PRV sale, signaling improved confidence in its asset value. The approval also gives it a second PRV, which could collectively generate about $400 million in non-dilutive capital, while management’s plan to implement significant expense reductions should improve financial discipline. Even after recent setbacks, the commercial business is viewed as materially undervalued, with more than 80% upside implied for that segment alone before assigning any pipeline value.

Bear case

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical is viewed negatively because its growth thesis has been weakened by GTX-102’s ASPIRE Phase 3 failure, which missed both the primary Bayley-4 cognition endpoint and the key secondary MDRI endpoint, removing a major potential driver from the pipeline. Management and analysts have already cut the model materially, eliminating $1.7 billion of peak GTX-102 revenue, reducing OpEx by $1.0 billion, and lowering projected FY30 non-GAAP net income to $66 million, underscoring pressure on future profitability. Beyond this setback, the company faces persistent risks from lower-than-expected revenues in its base portfolio, trial-enrollment delays, heightened gene-therapy regulatory scrutiny, and reimbursement resistance for expensive rare-disease treatments.

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