Boston Beer

SAM · NYSE

$184.20+$2.38 (+1.31%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:49 PM ET

Prev close $181.82

SAM analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 11 analysts over the last 12 months. 9% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold9
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 15 analysts

Average $202.57 (+10.0% upside)

Low: $161.60
Now: $184.20
High: $309.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

SAM analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$210.00 → $190.00	45%
Jefferies	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$230.00 → $195.00	45%
Citigroup	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$195.00 → $185.00	58%
Roth Capital	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$315.00 → $295.00	42%
RBC Capital	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$234.00 → $210.00	45%
UBS	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$245.00 → $190.00	62%
Citigroup	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$240.00 → $195.00	58%
Goldman Sachs	Jul 8, 2026	Maintains	Sell	$192.00 → $169.00	58%
Morgan Stanley	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$235.00 → $220.00	50%
Bernstein	May 5, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$218.00 → $210.00	17%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Boston Beer Co is well positioned by its premium brand portfolio, especially Sun Cruiser’s triple-digit depletion growth and margin accretive mix, which is helping offset pressure in Truly and the broader hard seltzer category. Its gross margin execution has improved materially, with 2Q gross margin at 50.4% and full-year guidance raised to 48.5%–50%, supported by brewery efficiencies, procurement savings, pricing, and a higher internal production mix expected to exceed 90% in FY'25. Even though 2026 shipments are still guided to -MSD to -LSD and EPS is $8.50-$10.50, the company’s shelf gains, lower marketing spend, and innovation pipeline suggest improving operating leverage and a sturdier earnings base.

Bear case

Boston Beer Co is facing a weak fundamental setup because depletions remain deeply negative, with Q2 down 6% and the first half down 5%, while management guided to the low end of FY'26 volume expectations as the rest of the portfolio struggles with macro and relevancy headwinds. Although 2Q gross margin reached 50.4% and in-house production rose to 84%, profitability support looks fragile because third-party production contraction, aluminum and freight inflation, and fixed-cost deleverage can quickly erode the benefit. The company is also spending heavily with limited payoff, as 2Q Selling, Advertising, Promotion expense reached 32.7% of sales and incremental A&P failed to lift demand, especially in Truly, leaving visibility low and the shares vulnerable to prolonged rangebound trading.

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