Simmons First National

SFNC · NASDAQ

$22.77+$0.55 (+2.48%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $22.22

SFNC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 71% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold1
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $26.45 (+16.1% upside)

Low: $24.24
Now: $22.77
High: $29.40

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

SFNC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
DA Davidson	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$24.00 → $25.00	78%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$26.00 → $27.00	55%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$26.00 → $25.00	79%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Sep 10, 2026	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$26.00	79%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 8, 2026	Downgrade	Equal-Weight → Underweight	$24.00 → $26.00	55%
Piper Sandler	Sep 4, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Overweight	$26.00 → $27.50	67%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$25.00 → $26.00	79%
DA Davidson	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$23.00 → $24.00	78%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jul 20, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$24.00 → $25.00	79%
DA Davidson	Jul 17, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$23.00	78%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Simmons First Ntl is viewed positively because its core earnings engine is strengthening, with third-quarter NIM expanding 8 bps sequentially to 3.92%, supported by higher loan yields and lower funding costs, while lower PLL and NIE helped drive stronger-than-expected EPS. The company’s asset-sensitive balance sheet and repricing tailwind—$1.8 billion of loans below 4% repricing over the next 12 months and $2.6 billion over the next three years—support further NIM expansion and roughly 12% full-year NII growth versus the 9%-11% guide. In addition, capital remains solid, with a TCE ratio of 8.6% and CET1 of 12.05%, while branch closures and efficiency actions should lift profitability, operating leverage, and future buyback capacity.

Bear case

Simmons First Ntl is facing a cautious fundamental backdrop because its $598M quarter-over-quarter loan decline signals weaker near-term balance sheet expansion, with management citing a maturity wall, early paydowns, and tighter spread discipline that could keep growth modest into 4Q26 and early 2027. Although 2Q26 delivered 7% annualized NII growth, stable GAAP NIM, and YTD loan growth of 6.6% annualized, the quarter still came in below estimates and the company’s ability to sustain upper-end 9%-11% full-year NII growth depends on improving loan production and margin resilience. In addition, $40M-$45M of one-time charges in 3Q from branch closures and footprint reductions highlight a meaningful restructuring burden, while credit deterioration, pricing competition, and potential M&A underexecution could pressure profitability.

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