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Sol Gel Technologies

SLGL · NASDAQ

$65.81+$0.83 (+1.28%)TodayMarket closed ·
Prev close $64.98

SLGL analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.
  • Strong buy0
  • Buy3
  • Hold0
  • Underperform0
  • Sell0

12-month price target · 4 analysts

Average $155.55 (+136.4% upside)

Low
$111.10
Now
$65.81
High
$204.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

SLGL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
FirmDateActionRating
HC Wainwright & Co.Oct 19, 2026MaintainsBuy
Cantor FitzgeraldOct 14, 2026InitiatesOverweight
HC Wainwright & Co.Jul 20, 2026MaintainsBuy
MizuhoJun 24, 2026InitiatesOutperform
HC Wainwright & Co.Jan 20, 2026MaintainsBuy
HC Wainwright & Co.Dec 22, 2025MaintainsBuy
HC Wainwright & Co.Oct 27, 2025MaintainsBuy

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Sol-Gel Technologies is positioned favorably because SGT-610 addresses Gorlin syndrome, a rare disease with ~11-12K diagnosed U.S. patients, no approved therapies, and a modeled annual WAC of $170k, supporting peak sales above $600M and worldwide sales of ~$650M by 2036E. The stock also appears undervalued relative to its fundamentals, with a fully diluted market cap of about $269M versus a DCF near $900M, while the market seems to price only ~20-30% probability despite an estimated ~60% POS and encouraging Phase 3 retention, with only 9% dropout as of August 2026. Balance sheet strength was improved by a March 2026 offering that brought gross proceeds of ~$33.1M and end-1Q26 cash and marketable securities of ~$52.8M, while TWYNEO and EPSOLAY partnerships could add up to $4.5M in milestones and roughly $10M in annual royalties by 2031.

Bear case

Sol-Gel Technologies is viewed negatively because its lead value driver, SGT-610, is a redo of a failed Phase 3, with the prior study missing statistical significance in 2021 and the new trial relying on a post hoc PTCH1+/high-burden subgroup signal that may not generalize. Although a ~48% reduction in new BCCs and a broader pool of ~11,000-12,000 U.S. patients support some upside, the program still faces endpoint variability, high dropout risk from the earlier 29% no-12-month-assessment rate, and uncertainty that a smaller effect would translate into meaningful commercial adoption. Financially, the asset was acquired for about $5 million upfront in 2023, patent protection may extend to 2044, but the company’s ~$445 million total firm value and $110 per-share framework remain highly dependent on a 40% probability of approval and are vulnerable to trial failure, regulatory setbacks, and dilution.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.