Sonida Senior Living

SNDA · NYSE

$34.37+$0.34 (+1.00%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Prev close $34.03

SNDA analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 83% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $50.49 (+46.9% upside)

Low: $43.43
Now: $34.37
High: $68.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

SNDA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Baird	Sep 4, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Outperform	$37.00 → $43.00	38%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 1, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$38.00 → $44.00	56%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$42.00 → $47.00	55%
Compass Point	Aug 11, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$65.00	14%
Citizens	Jul 27, 2026	Initiates	Market Outperform	$50.00	40%
RBC Capital	Jun 29, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$45.00 → $48.00	57%
Morgan Stanley	May 29, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$31.00 → $38.00	56%
Cantor Fitzgerald	May 13, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$36.00 → $42.00	55%
Baird	Apr 24, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$35.00 → $37.00	38%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Apr 13, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$36.00	55%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Sonida Senior Living is attractive because the CNL merger created meaningful scale, with about 14,700 owned units and a $3.3 billion enterprise value, while also adding roughly $16-20 million in annual synergies and 62% estimated normalized FFO per share accretion on a run-rate basis. Operationally, the company is posting strong same-store momentum, including 14% same-store NOI growth, 170 basis points of margin expansion to 31.2%, a 220 basis point occupancy increase to 87.2%, and a debt/EBITDA decline from 8.6x in 1Q26 to 7.8x in 2Q26. Its 100% owner-operator structure, proprietary SPIN platform, and pipeline of $88 million in deal activity support both internal efficiency gains and external growth while setting up further deleveraging and margin expansion.

Bear case

Sonida Senior Living is viewed negatively because its valuation already embeds a rich multiple, trading at 21.0x 2027E AFFO and at a 43% to 47% premium to NAV, leaving limited margin for error if execution slips. The outlook is further pressured by the risk that an uptick in supply could weaken the favorable SHOP narrative, while a slowdown in the US economy could make senior housing less affordable for residents and their adult-child caregivers. The company’s non-REIT owner/operator structure may also constrain the shareholder base, and its M&A-driven strategy carries integration, mortgage financing, interest-rate, labor-cost, and competitive risks.

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