TransDigm Group

TDG · NYSE

$1,143.06+$0.61 (+0.05%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $1,142.45

TDG analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 12 analysts over the last 12 months. 33% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 22 analysts

Average $1,507.25 (+31.9% upside)

Low: $991.82
Now: $1,143.06
High: $2,070.60

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TDG analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$1,400.00 → $1,300.00	61%
RBC Capital	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$1,350.00 → $1,200.00	59%
Goldman Sachs	Oct 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$1,972.00 → $1,745.00	56%
TD Cowen	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$1,450.00 → $1,300.00	63%
Wells Fargo	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$1,450.00 → $1,210.00	69%
BMO Capital	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$1,525.00 → $1,400.00	15%
JP Morgan	Sep 17, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$1,450.00 → $1,415.00	63%
RBC Capital	Sep 16, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$1,350.00	59%
Guggenheim	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	—	71%
UBS	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$1,585.00 → $1,695.00	49%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

TransDigm Group is viewed positively because its proprietary aerospace parts business combines a durable aftermarket annuity with strong defense exposure, and roughly 53% of FY26E net sales are expected to come from the higher-margin aftermarket. The company’s recurring M&A strategy, including recent acquisitions and more than $10B of remaining M&A capacity, should expand the portfolio while its proven ability to integrate deals supports incremental earnings power, even with gross debt around $34B and leverage typically in the 5x to 7x range. Near-term fundamentals remain constructive, with FY25 defense sales up 13% organically, FY26 guidance calling for HSD-LDD defense growth, commercial AM recently recovering to about 17%, and fiscal 2Q26 margins at 52.6%.

Bear case

TransDigm Group is viewed negatively because its core value-creation engine is under pressure from weaker aftermarket growth, plateauing EBITDA margins, and a harder M&A environment. The company’s net debt/TTM EBITDA stood at 5.8x as of FY25 and 3Q26, while debt-funded special dividends, such as the $90 per share distribution in FY25 backed by $5B of new debt, add leverage and reduce financial flexibility. Regulatory scrutiny, “Right to Repair” risks, and DOJ pushback on acquisitions like Stellant Systems could constrain the acquisition-led model that has historically supported growth, keeping valuation and returns under pressure.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.