Toast

TOST · NYSE

$32.65+$1.20 (+3.82%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $31.45

TOST analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 25 analysts over the last 12 months. 68% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy17
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 30 analysts

Average $39.32 (+20.4% upside)

Low: $25.25
Now: $32.65
High: $47.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TOST analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Truist Securities	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$39.00 → $38.00	68%
B of A Securities	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$40.00	67%
BNP Paribas	Sep 2, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Neutral	$38.00 → $35.00	33%
RBC Capital	Aug 31, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$36.00 → $44.00	64%
Truist Securities	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$33.00 → $39.00	68%
DA Davidson	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$30.00 → $34.00	57%
Bernstein	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$39.00 → $45.00	42%
UBS	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$34.00 → $39.00	45%
Citigroup	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$36.00 → $39.00	64%
Oppenheimer	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$36.00 → $38.00	51%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Toast is attractive because it still has substantial runway in its core SMB and mid-market restaurant market, which is only about 20% penetrated, while management aims to double share to 40%+ through a flywheel of location adds and ARPU expansion across SaaS, fintech, and AI tools such as Toast IQ Grow. The company is also broadening its addressable market through enterprise wins like Applebee’s, Firehouse Subs, and Marriott, plus food & beverage retail and international expansion, with 10,000 live locations across those newer areas in 2Q25 and those markets on pace to reach $100M in ARR in 2025. Fundamentally, this growth is paired with improving profitability and cash generation, as Toast ended 2025 with approximately 164K locations, processed over $195B of gross payment volume, generated $608M of free cash flow in 2025 versus a $190M loss in 2022, and trades at 5.4x CY27E EV/GP versus a 6.9x peer median.

Bear case

Toast is exposed to a mix of structural and cyclical risks that justify a negative view, starting with a business model whose reported revenue is inflated by gross-basis payment fees and whose 2026 estimated Rule of 40 is below the cohort median at 38% because of weak FCF margins. Its core end market is concentrated in small and mid-sized restaurants, where low margins, high failure rates, and sensitivity to consumer spending make roughly 50% of recurring gross profit tied to payments vulnerable in a downturn. Competitive pressure from large incumbents and well-funded private rivals, plus added uncertainty from Toast Capital, eroding moat concerns in a gen AI world, and concentrated voting control, further weaken the investment case.

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