Turning Point Brands

TPB · NYSE

$64.43+$2.84 (+4.61%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 6:30 PM ET

Prev close $61.59

TPB analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $120.87 (+87.6% upside)

Low: $90.90
Now: $64.43
High: $147.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TPB analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Oppenheimer	Sep 22, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$130.00 → $90.00	52%
Needham	May 8, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$125.00	32%
Oppenheimer	Nov 19, 2025	Maintains	Outperform	$110.00 → $120.00	52%
Alliance Global Partners	Nov 6, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$103.00 → $110.00	10%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Turning Point Brands is positioned favorably because its nicotine pouch and modern oral brands are already outperforming expectations, with scanner data, DTC trends, and retail distribution continuing to strengthen. The company’s growing presence in large chains such as Circle K and 7-Eleven, combined with expansion into smaller retailers where slot fees are lower, should improve market share economics and support a beat-and-raise profile as distribution scales. Financially, the outlook is bolstered by high-single-digit-plus top-line growth, 2026 revenue modeled at about $525 million, 2027 revenue at about $587.5 million, and solid cash flow that can support both balance-sheet strength and shareholder returns.

Bear case

Turning Point Brands is facing a weaker earnings profile as FY26 EBITDA guidance was narrowed to $70M-$80M from $70M-$90M, reflecting higher freight costs and delays in onshoring that also pushed any domestic production margin benefit to 2027. The negative view is reinforced by execution risk around the CEO transition, continued elevated investment spending, and uncertainty over PMTA approval, which could hinder margin expansion and longer-term production flexibility. Additional pressure comes from a competitive modern oral nicotine market, potential declines in MST and loose-leaf consumption, and the possibility that slotting fees and distribution gains normalize faster than expected.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.