Unusual Machines

UMAC · NYSE American

$16.38−$0.02 (−0.12%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 8:00 PM ET

Prev close $16.40

UMAC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 10 analysts

Average $39.78 (+142.9% upside)

Low: $30.30
Now: $16.38
High: $47.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

UMAC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Needham	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$40.00	16%
Piper Sandler	Aug 12, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$38.00	41%
Needham	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$30.00 → $40.00	16%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Jul 15, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$42.00	34%
Needham	Jun 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$22.00 → $30.00	16%
Roth Capital	Jun 2, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$25.00 → $40.00	31%
Needham	May 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$20.00 → $22.00	16%
Roth Capital	May 13, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$25.00	31%
Needham	Apr 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$20.00	16%
Needham	Apr 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$20.00	16%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Unusual Machines is well positioned to benefit from a historic U.S. drone supercycle, with NDAA and FCC restrictions steadily shifting procurement toward domestic, compliant suppliers and leaving supply as the binding constraint into 2027. Its demand base appears broad and resilient, with Drone Dominance expected to be less than 30% of 2027 revenue, while C-UAS interceptors, Powerus, Fortem, and other programs create additional upside and reduce dependence on any single contract. Operational execution supports the thesis, as 2Q26 revenue reached $16.7M, up 687% Y/Y, gross margin improved to 34.7%, cash and short-term investments were about $316M with no debt, and the Orlando ramp points to 100,000 motors per month by year-end and a path toward profitability in 2027.

Bear case

Unusual Machines is exposed to an unattractive mix of execution, procurement, and supply-chain risk, making its growth thesis highly dependent on delayed and uncertain defense program awards. Its revenue outlook is lumpy because key OEM customers must win major small UAS contracts, yet there is no guarantee those awards arrive or ramp as expected, which could drive meaningful forecast cuts and a lower valuation multiple. The company also faces rising competition, raw-material dependence on third-party and China-linked inputs, and a difficult scale-up from 81 FTEs to a 500 target by YE 2026, all of which threaten margins, timely fulfillment, and profitability.

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