USA Rare Earth

USAR · NASDAQ

$10.06−$0.03 (−0.30%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $10.09

USAR analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 10 analysts

Average $35.83 (+256.1% upside)

Low: $21.21
Now: $10.06
High: $47.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

USAR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Jefferies	Sep 2, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$21.00	57%
Needham	Jul 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$39.00 → $33.00	0%
Roth Capital	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$40.00 → $30.00	47%
Needham	Jun 1, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$39.00	0%
Wedbush	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$35.00	0%
Cantor Fitzgerald	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$30.00 → $35.00	29%
Wedbush	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$29.00 → $35.00	0%
Canaccord Genuity	Apr 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$29.00 → $32.00	34%
Wedbush	Apr 20, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$29.00	0%
Canaccord Genuity	Mar 31, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$33.00 → $29.00	34%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

USA Rare Earth is viewed positively because it is rapidly building the only fully integrated mine-to-magnet supply chain outside China, with recent acquisitions and investments tying together upstream mining, midstream processing, and downstream magnet production. The company’s near-term catalysts include first commercial NdFeB shipments in 2Q26, the Serra Verde acquisition expected to close in 3Q26, and a robust liquidity position of about $1.75 billion that helps fund execution without near-term financing pressure. Its outlook is further strengthened by government support, including $1.6 billion in Department of Commerce funding, a $14.2 million Texas grant, and long-term offtake agreements and price floors that reduce downside risk while supporting future EBITDA expansion.

Bear case

USA Rare Earth is facing a bearish setup because its valuation and terminal earnings depend heavily on premium pricing for non-China magnets and precursor products, yet the company itself acknowledges those premiums could erode. Execution risk is high: the quarter’s loss from operations was $(36.7) million versus the Street’s estimate of ($23.5) million, and the business still must prove it can scale manufacturing, secure post-2027 feedstock, and navigate environmental and regulatory hurdles. The outlook is further pressured by uncertainty around the proposed $1.6 billion CHIPS Act government LOI, Brazil-related scrutiny of the Serra Verde transaction, and the risk that higher capital costs or weaker pricing could dilute returns.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.