Vanda Pharmaceuticals

VNDA · NASDAQ

$4.17+$0.08 (+1.96%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $4.09

VNDA analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 80% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $11.98 (+187.4% upside)

Low: $5.81
Now: $4.17
High: $21.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

VNDA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
HC Wainwright & Co.	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$20.00	43%
Oppenheimer	Sep 23, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$10.00	59%
B. Riley Securities	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$17.00 → $12.00	30%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$21.00 → $20.00	43%
HC Wainwright & Co.	May 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$24.00 → $21.00	43%
Truist Securities	Mar 5, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$18.00	59%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Feb 23, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$22.00 → $24.00	43%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Jan 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$20.00 → $22.00	43%
B. Riley Securities	Dec 31, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$11.00 → $14.00	30%
Jefferies	Dec 31, 2025	Maintains	Hold	$5.00 → $7.50	44%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Vanda Pharmaceuticals is supported by a combination of near-term commercial resilience and multiple value-creating catalysts, led by Fanapt’s 2Q26 net product sales of $36M, up 23% year-over-year, and management’s reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $240M–$290M. The company also has a deep late-stage pipeline, with HETLIOZ’s positive Phase 3 DSWPD data showing a 37.1-minute placebo-adjusted improvement in sleep-onset timing, while Tradipitant, milsaperidone, VQW-765, and the iloperidone LAI could all drive additional growth over the next several readouts. Despite a 2Q26 loss before income taxes of $62.4M, cash and marketable securities of $170M appear sufficient to fund operations at least through next year, giving the business time to transition from its current turnaround phase toward profitability.

Bear case

Vanda Pharmaceuticals is facing a weak fundamental setup because its revenue base is concentrated in FANAPT, HETLIOZ, and PONVORY, leaving the business exposed to product-specific execution risk, generic erosion, and reimbursement pressure that could limit penetration. The DCF framework already reflects only ~$1.12B in enterprise value and ~$1.29B in firm value, even after assuming ~$170M in cash and marketable securities as of mid-2026, which underscores limited margin for error. Its outlook is further burdened by regulatory and clinical uncertainty across Bysanti, tradipitant, and imsidolimab, plus possible medium-term dilution risk, making upside dependent on several uncertain approvals and commercialization milestones.

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