Valvoline

VVV · NYSE

$31.48+$0.76 (+2.47%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $30.72

VVV analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 15 analysts over the last 12 months. 80% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy12
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 19 analysts

Average $44.96 (+42.8% upside)

Low: $40.40
Now: $31.48
High: $51.45

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

VVV analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00 → $40.00	54%
Barclays	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$41.00 → $39.00	28%
Citigroup	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$41.00 → $34.00	44%
RBC Capital	Sep 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$46.00 → $49.00	54%
Benchmark	Aug 20, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$48.00	27%
TD Cowen	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$47.00 → $45.00	54%
RBC Capital	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$47.00 → $46.00	54%
Stephens & Co.	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$44.00 → $48.00	44%
Barclays	Jul 22, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$35.00 → $41.00	28%
Wells Fargo	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$42.00 → $45.00	22%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Valvoline is positioned favorably because its core quick-lube model combines convenience with a broad, recurring maintenance offering, and its roughly 2,200 locations across the U.S. and Canada support steady traffic and share gains in a fragmented market where it still only serves about 21M of an estimated 430M U.S. oil changes. Recent results reinforce this thesis: system-wide same-store sales grew +8.0% in F3Q, driven by both ticket growth and transactions, while F4Q expectations point to +8-10% SSS and adj. EBITDA of $146M, indicating durable pricing power even amid inflation. Following the global products divestiture, the business should be higher-margin with stronger free cash flow, and management’s ability to maintain high single-digit SSS plus +7–10% unit growth underpins the case for continued earnings expansion.

Bear case

Valvoline is facing a deteriorating margin profile as F4Q adjusted EBITDA is trimmed to $146M and implied F4Q adjusted EBITDA margin falls to 24.9%-25.3%, down roughly 340-380 bps year over year, largely from constrained supply and finished lubricant costs that could end F4Q about 60% higher. The company also faces an intensely competitive, low-barrier quick-lube market where rivals such as Driven Brands, Jiffy Lube, and Grease Monkey may expand faster than expected, limiting store-opening opportunities and pressuring pricing power. With domestic comps revised to +3.3% and lower transactions expected amid choppy trends, Valvoline appears vulnerable to cost inflation, weaker elasticity, and margin compression despite its large U.S.-centric retail footprint.

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