Xponential Fitness

XPOF · NYSE

$4.39−$0.03 (−0.68%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $4.42

XPOF analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $5.71 (+30.1% upside)

Low: $4.55
Now: $4.39
High: $8.40

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

XPOF analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
UBS	Sep 16, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$7.00 → $4.50	46%
Roth Capital	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$7.00 → $5.00	49%
B. Riley Securities	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$6.00 → $5.00	46%
Guggenheim	Aug 7, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	—	63%
Raymond James	Mar 19, 2026	Downgrade	Strong Buy → Market Perform	—	47%
Keybanc	Mar 12, 2026	Initiates	Sector Weight	—	37%
Guggenheim	Mar 2, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$12.00 → $10.00	63%
Baird	Feb 27, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$8.00 → $6.50	49%
Stifel	Nov 21, 2025	Maintains	Hold	$10.00 → $8.00	51%
Guggenheim	Nov 10, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$13.00 → $12.00	63%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Xponential Fitness is supported by a durable unit-growth model, highlighted by the 117-studio development agreement with Spartan Fitness Holdings and a five-plus-year new-studio runway that can compound revenue through franchise expansion rather than relying solely on same-store sales. Club Pilates remains the key growth engine, with its 200th international studio opened in June, 500+ international studios now operating, and strong pre-sale-driven opening AUVs suggesting attractive economics for new locations despite pressure from fill-in studios. The Starbucks protein coffee collaboration reaching ~120,000 employees further reinforces brand awareness and lead generation, supporting a positive long-term view even as same-store sales remain negative.

Bear case

Xponential Fitness is facing a deteriorating fundamental backdrop as 2Q revenue fell 13% year over year to $66.0M and AEBITDA dropped 22% to $21.9M, while same-store sales declined 6.8% and North American system-wide sales were flat at $437.3M. Management then lowered 2026 guidance for revenue to $250M-$260M and AEBITDA to $91M-$97M, signaling that the 2H recovery once expected from pricing, initiatives, and easier compares is not materializing, with 1H26 comps already down about 6.5%. Profitability is further pressured by a 33% rise in SG&A, a still-uneven merchandising transition, and about $11.4M of additional settlement payments expected over the remainder of 2026, leaving limited visibility on margin recovery.

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