York Space Systems

YSS · NYSE

$5.73+$0.05 (+0.88%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:58 PM ET

Prev close $5.68

YSS analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 12 analysts over the last 12 months. 42% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold7
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $14.90 (+160.1% upside)

Low: $11.11
Now: $5.73
High: $18.90

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

YSS analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Piper Sandler	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$9.00	41%
Barclays	Oct 9, 2026	Initiates	Equal-Weight	$11.00	26%
Guggenheim	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	—	71%
Citigroup	Sep 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$33.00 → $13.00	27%
Wells Fargo	Aug 31, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$35.00 → $17.00	—
Truist Securities	Aug 20, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$26.00 → $14.00	0%
Jefferies	Aug 18, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$32.00 → $15.00	55%
Canaccord Genuity	Aug 18, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Hold	$36.00 → $13.50	31%
JP Morgan	Aug 17, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Neutral	$38.00 → $17.00	63%
Needham	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$33.00 → $18.00	50%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

York Space Systems is well positioned because its low-cost, modular, payload-agnostic spacecraft architecture aligns with the Department of War’s shift toward proliferated, resilient constellations, where it can build satellites at roughly half the cost of competitor bids and scale to over 1,000 units of annual capacity. Its recent acquisitions of ATLAS Space Operations, Orbion Space Technology, Solestial, and ALL.SPACE expand its reach into ground operations, propulsion, power, and communications, while the $187M DeepSky win and the company’s role in PWSA and SDN support broader mission-cycle monetization. Despite Q2/26 revenue of $92.5M and an Adj. EBITDA loss of ($9.5M), the business had $534M in cash, $684M in liquidity, and an ~$11.5B pipeline, suggesting strong upside leverage if contract conversions accelerate.

Bear case

York Space Systems is facing a negative outlook because backlog and bookings are no longer converting efficiently, with backlog at $592M as of 2Q26, revenue guidance cut by about $180M, and the company removing roughly $130M of new business from guidance due to shifting award timing. Its dependence on a concentrated set of government customers, especially the Space Development Agency, leaves it vulnerable to procurement changes, while the move toward competitive IDIQs and task orders makes revenue timing less predictable and weakens the value of its backlog. Although gross margin improved to 24% in 2Q26, adjusted EBITDA was still a $9.5M loss, operating cash flow was negative $187M in 1H26, and acquisition integration, supply chain issues, and internal control weaknesses raise execution risk.

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