Cheesecake Factory

CAKE · NASDAQ

$116.43+$0.25 (+0.22%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $116.18

CAKE analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 18 analysts over the last 12 months. 28% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold10
Underperform2
Sell1

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $94.79 (−18.6% downside)

Low: $60.60
Now: $116.43
High: $122.85

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

CAKE analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$104.00 → $128.00	57%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$80.00 → $87.00	48%
Stephens & Co.	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$93.00 → $100.00	24%
Oppenheimer	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$101.00 → $122.00	58%
Wells Fargo	Sep 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$90.00 → $105.00	57%
JP Morgan	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$92.00 → $105.00	64%
Argus Research	Jul 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$72.00 → $110.00	55%
Oppenheimer	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$91.00 → $101.00	58%
Mizuho	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$85.00 → $93.00	55%
Baird	Jul 29, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$65.00 → $90.00	54%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

The Cheesecake Factory is benefiting from accelerating same-store sales, with 3Q26E/4Q26E modeled at +9.1%/+7.0% and 1Q26 revenue of $978.8 million, as traffic stabilizes, mix pressure eases, and the Rewards app adds a credible demand driver. Its fundamentals are further supported by disciplined cost control and margin leverage, with 1Q26 restaurant-level margins of 15.8% and adjusted EPS of $1.05, while FY26 still carries roughly a 5% net income margin target. Long-term upside is reinforced by scalable growth engines like Flower Child and North Italia, where unit growth exceeds 20% and AUVs remain strong, supporting durable earnings revisions into '26/'27.

Bear case

The Cheesecake Factory is exposed to a difficult operating backdrop, with food, wage, labor availability, rent, and utility inflation threatening margins and making it harder to sustain profitability if cost pressures persist longer than expected. Its business also depends heavily on discretionary spending and higher-income consumers, so weak GDP growth, higher unemployment, low confidence, or recessionary conditions could quickly translate into softer traffic and sales declines. In addition, mall exposure and aggressive unit growth add execution risk through decelerating foot traffic, cannibalization, new-store inefficiencies, and challenges scaling culture and human capital across new markets.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.