Firefly Aerospace

FLY · NASDAQ

$16.31−$0.33 (−1.98%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $16.64

FLY analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 70% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy7
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 12 analysts

Average $39.21 (+140.4% upside)

Low: $25.25
Now: $16.31
High: $52.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

FLY analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Barclays	Oct 9, 2026	Initiates	Equal-Weight	$34.00	26%
Roth Capital	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$60.00 → $45.00	47%
B. Riley Securities	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$60.00 → $50.00	61%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$35.00	45%
Wells Fargo	Jul 27, 2026	Initiates	Equal-Weight	$25.00	69%
Keybanc	Jun 15, 2026	Upgrade	Sector Weight → Overweight	$50.00	37%
Morgan Stanley	May 5, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$33.00 → $37.00	61%
Goldman Sachs	Apr 20, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$29.00 → $32.00	26%
Roth Capital	Apr 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$35.00 → $60.00	47%
Jefferies	Apr 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$40.00 → $45.00	55%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Firefly Aerospace is underpinned by exceptional 2Q26 execution, with revenue of $117.7m rising 45.5% q/q and 659% y/y, while spacecraft revenue grew 60% q/q and gross margin held at 20% despite launch timing noise. Its outlook is strengthened by $1.5bn of backlog, about 95% coverage of CY26 revenue guidance of $420m-$450m, and a broader mix of space, national security, and AI software programs that improve visibility and margin potential. Liquidity is also a major support, with roughly $635m of cash plus an undrawn $300m+ revolver, giving it room to execute through launch investments while scaling higher-margin spacecraft solutions.

Bear case

Firefly Aerospace is exposed to an emerging and highly competitive space market where customer wins, pricing, and mission demand can shift quickly, while its top five customers still represent over 86% of revenue and 81% of backlog, heightening concentration risk. The company also carries structural execution risk from launch delays, anomalies, harsh space-environment events, and manufacturing quality issues across Eclipse MLVs and Elytra OTVs, all of which could trigger regulatory holds, higher costs, or lost contracts. Fundamentally, a history of operating losses, rising operating expenses and capital expenditures, reliance on third-party launch providers and limited suppliers, and heavy dependence on U.S. government budgets and regulation weaken visibility into profitability and cash generation.

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