Joby Aviation

Bull case

• Joby Aviation is favored because it combines an early-mover position in eVTOL air taxi development with tangible execution milestones, including Dallas eIPP operations, potential passenger flights by year end, and a successful NYC flight that showcased its tilt-rotor S4 aircraft.
• The fundamentals support a long-term scaling story, with revenues projected to rise from $122M in 2026 to $14.2B in 2036, gross margin expected to exceed 45% by 2029 and approach 50% by 2035, and adjusted EBITDA turning positive by over $300M in 2030 before reaching $7B in 2036.
• Its outlook is further strengthened by FAA regulatory progress, strong demand signals from Blade ridership and premium urban mobility use cases, while operating expenses are forecast to grow only modestly from about $1B in 2026 to nearly $1.3B in 2036.

Bear case

Joby Aviation is exposed to multiple fundamental headwinds that support a negative outlook, including dilution, adoption, supply chain, technological, execution, regulatory, competition, partnership, reputation, and macro/geopolitical risks. Regulatory approval delays and any high-profile safety event could push out certification timing, while the company’s early production-ramp challenges for a novel technology underscore uncertainty around scaling manufacturing reliably. With a bear case of $5 to $9 based on its '31E adjusted EBITDA discounted back, the outlook reflects concern that urban eVTOL demand and JOBY UAM revenues may develop more slowly than hoped.