Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund

MSDL · NYSE

$12.92+$0.14 (+1.10%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $12.78

MSDL analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 6 analysts over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold6
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $16.11 (+24.7% upside)

Low: $14.14
Now: $12.92
High: $17.85

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MSDL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
UBS	Sep 1, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$16.25 → $15.50	100%
JP Morgan	Jul 2, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$14.00 → $14.50	56%
UBS	Apr 20, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$16.00 → $16.25	100%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Apr 16, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$16.50 → $16.00	45%
UBS	Mar 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$18.00 → $16.00	100%
JP Morgan	Mar 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$16.50 → $14.00	56%
RBC Capital	Mar 5, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$18.00 → $16.00	29%
Wells Fargo	Mar 2, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$16.00 → $14.00	50%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Mar 2, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$18.50 → $16.50	45%
Wells Fargo	Jan 7, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Equal-Weight	$17.00 → $16.00	50%

The case for and against

Updated Feb 9, 2026

Bull case

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) is well-positioned for positive performance due to its strategic leverage increase to 1.15x debt/equity, which aligns with its targeted range of 1.0x-1.25x, suggesting effective management of financial risk. The fund also benefits from a competitive fee structure, maintaining a base management fee rate of 1.0% one year post-IPO, which is lower than the industry average of 1.2%, indicating a focus on shareholder alignment and cost efficiency. Additionally, MSDL's ability to leverage Morgan Stanley's extensive relationships and network enhances its origination capabilities, offering a potentially differentiated sourcing advantage that is favorable for generating attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Bear case

The negative outlook on Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund's stock stems from its heavy reliance on its investment advisor, which raises concerns about the fund's operational success and access to the necessary investment professionals. Additionally, potential economic downturns pose significant risks to the portfolio companies, which could adversely affect operating results and overall returns. The strategy's use of leverage, combined with changing interest rates and possible conflicts of interest, further compounds these risks, underlining the challenges the fund may face in achieving its investment objectives.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.